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Trader Overview
Scott8153 (0xd1ecfa3e7d221851663f739626dcd15fca565d8e) Polymarket trader turned $281k into $651k in pure withdrawals — 83.56% win rate across 73 trades, ranking #309 on the Polymarket leaderboard with $370k in total PnL and zero open positions.
The edge is brutally simple: Scott8153 doesn't chase. This Polymarket whale trades 0.9 markets per day with an $3,209 average ticket size, sitting at a 14.6:1 buy-to-sell ratio. That's not noise collection — that's conviction stacking. His best trade, "Who will win Georgia?", netted $45k. His worst, a Jets vs. Broncos contract, cost him $25.5k. The range is tight. The discipline is tighter. A 131.54% ROI on deposits doesn't happen by scalping volatility; it happens by knowing which markets matter and entering at 0.77 average price — deep value, not retail fomo.
Scott8153 is a specialist in political and sports prediction markets. You don't hit 83.56% accuracy across 71 different markets without pattern recognition that most degens never develop. His low risk profile and closed-position-only approach (73 closed, zero dangling) suggests he exits ruthlessly — takes winners off the board before narrative rot sets in, cuts losers before they become disasters. Buy ratio of 14.6:1 means he's fundamentally a directional bull, but that conviction is earned through research, not twitter charts.
The real tell: no portfolio bloat. 73 total trades across 71 markets over the window means he's not trap-trading the same thesis 20 times. He moves, learns, rotates. His daily trade rate of 0.9 is almost meditative compared to bot-level activity — this is someone who waits for high-conviction setups and executes. The $370k PnL against $281k deposits equals a clean 131.54% return, and he's already withdrawn $651k, meaning he's cashed profits while keeping dry powder.
Risk: Nobody maintains 83% accuracy forever. Prediction markets reward contrarian patience until they don't. Scott8153 has zero open positions, which is smart risk management but also means we can't read his current thesis. The Jets vs. Broncos loss shows he can still get it wrong when he gets it wrong. But six figures of real withdrawals on a Polymarket whale profile? That's not luck.
whaleRisk: low