jarosbill
Loading wallet statistics…
jarosbill is a Polymarket wallet profile with $135.0K PnL, $3.0M total volume, a 100.0% win rate, and activity across 302 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
One wallet that started with tiny test bets and now holds a six-figure PnL from surfing event-driven markets — meet jarosbill, a Polymarket whale who’s closed 10 trades with a 100% win rate but still sits at -79% ROI on deposits because he plays big enough to swing both ways.
Jarosbill is a whale ranked #1603 on Polymarket, a high-frequency event trader who jumped into over 302 markets with average trades of $1,492. He bets across sports and politics, but his edge is pure math: he buys when retail panic-sells and sells when hype peaks, exploiting the spread between emotional noise and real probability. His $20.5k best trade on France vs. Spain - More Markets (2026-07-14) wasn’t a lucky pump — it was a grinding arb grind where he entered at a 0.42 average price and rode the reversion to fair value. His $135K profit on Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fery (2026-07-15) proves he’s not infallible, but it also shows he’s willing to size up on mispricings that don’t resolve.
The edge that separates this jarosbill Polymarket trader from 99% of degens: discipline. He doesn’t chase headlines — he waits for market dislocations in niche sports and political events, then executes with a buy/sell ratio of 8.3 to 1. His $1.8M in deposits and $341k in withdrawals mean he’s net in $1.49M, but his portfolio is only $37,501 today. That’s not failure — that’s a guy who’s moved massive volume (nearly $2.9M) while keeping his risk medium and never blowing up on a single trade. His win rate on closed positions is perfect, but real Polymarket PnL comes from surviving the drawdowns between those wins.
Right now, he has one open position and is running 10.5 trades per day. The risk? If you check his Polymarket wallet analytics, you’ll see a whale who’s net losing 79% on deposits — looks like free money until you realize the math only works if you have the bankroll to absorb the $10k+ losses. Not everyone survives that rhythm.
Track every move this jarosbill Polymarket trader makes using the Predicts.guru wallet checker — follow the wallet, not the hype.
whaleRisk: medium