MrAmostradinho
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MrAmostradinho is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$1.7K PnL, $300.6K total volume, a 97.3% win rate, and activity across 655 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
MrAmostradinho (0x6e3ee6290249d8267b274d9b2bb7dc47df9ee3eb) is a Polymarket trader who turned a $2,176 deposit into a -$1,654 hole with a 97.3% win rate—proving that prediction markets reward discipline more than accuracy.
The stat that breaks brains: 670 total trades across 655 markets, 97.3% win rate on Polymarket, yet down $1,654 total PnL. That's what happens when you nail 650 small bets and get torched by position sizing on the one that matters. MrAmostradinho trades like a conservative hedge fund—low risk per trade ($188 average), high frequency (9.2 trades per day), but zero margin for the black swan. The portfolio holds 184 open positions right now, meaning he's always got skin in something.
His edge is noise farming. He spreads $300.6K total volume across hundreds of tiny esports prediction markets—Dota 2, Counter-Strike, minor league stuff where most Polymarket degenerates never look. The math looks pure: buy at 0.76 average, sell higher, repeat. His best single trade on Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 printed -$1.7K PnL. Then he hit a Counter-Strike worst trade that cost him $700 in one swing. That's a buy-sell ratio of 2.6x—he's accumulating, not flipping.
Here's the brutal part: 97% accuracy means almost nothing without capital preservation. One bad esports call every 33 trades, but he's taking $188 bets on 670 trades. The math says you're gonna hit the wall. His ROI is -84.66% against deposits. He's withdrawn only $134 total, which means he's mostly watching the bleed. Net transfers show $2,042 stayed in the game, and it's hemorrhaging.
Current state: 184 open positions, $199.97 portfolio value left. MrAmostradinho is the guy who proved you can have a 97% Polymarket win rate and still get rekt by expectancy. The edge wasn't wrong—it was just undersized for the drawdown. Conservative trader type, but esports markets move in ways retail never predicts. He's not done yet, but the trajectory is clear.
conservativeRisk: low