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Trader Overview
HOOK
qy. is a Polymarket trader who turned a casual $1,091 deposit into a masterclass in how not to swing-trade Bitcoin — posting a brutal -$339.89 PnL across 55 trades with a 66% win rate that somehow still bleeds money.
IDENTITY
qy. ranks outside the top 2 million Polymarket traders but stays grinding. Diversified degen, 34 markets touched, medium risk tolerance. The stats scream hyperactive: 3.9 trades per day, $25 average entry, half the position sizing wisdom of actual professionals.
STRATEGY
Here's the trap: qy. scalps quick Bitcoin price bounces on 15-minute windows, hitting the same market repeatedly like it's a slot machine with better odds. The edge hack is simple — enter noise, exit noise, repeat 55 times hoping directional luck compounds. It doesn't. Buy-to-sell ratio of 10:1 shows he's chasing recoveries more than taking profits, a classic retail tells-all.
PROOF
The math is brutal. Win rate sits at 66.66%, which sounds elite until you see the PnL: negative. His best single trade nailed $292.60 on Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET, but the worst trade bled identical $292.60 in the opposite direction same market same day. Entry price averaging 0.547 suggests he's catching falling knives and holding bags on 50-50 propositions. Total volume of $3,758 across those 55 trades means he's not moving size — he's just moving frequency.
EDGE
None, which is kind of the point. qy. has zero edge. High win rate + negative PnL reveals the killer flaw: winning often doesn't matter if losses are sized wrong. His 21 open positions versus 34 closed ones signals he's rotating dead money into fresh bets instead of sitting with conviction. The Polymarket whale he isn't — he's the warning label.
NOW
Still active, still underwater. $943.97 net deposits sitting on -86.53% ROI. This is what happens when you treat prediction markets like scalping instead of prediction. Not everyone survives long enough to learn the difference.
diversifiedRisk: medium