SemyonMarmeladov
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SemyonMarmeladov is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$1.4M PnL, $148.1M total volume, a 85.7% win rate, and activity across 1166 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
One wallet that moved $148M through Polymarket in 112 trades — and still sits $1.44M underwater. SemyonMarmeladov is the Polymarket trader nobody on the leaderboard wants to explain.
Ranked #3,180,354 with a 85.7% win rate. Read that again. A whale who wins almost everything and still bleeds. Bio empty, wallet loud.
Here's the edge, and it's dumb-simple: this account farms tiny, high-probability outcomes and refuses to chase hype. Average entry 0.68, average trade size under $90, buy/sell ratio 2.75 — it's a script collecting pennies on near-certainties across 1,166 markets. Favorite hunting ground: Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. Best single win there: $3,793. Worst loss on record: -$130. That's the whole game — cap the downside, spam the upside.
But the numbers don't close. -$1.4M PnL against $148.1M volume at 85.7% win rate is a math crime scene. $150,758 deposited, $143,969 pulled out, 112 positions live. Something in the middle ate eight figures and nobody's talking.
What separates this from 99% of degens: brutal position sizing. Max loss of $130 against max win of $3,793 is a 29x asymmetry. Most traders blow up chasing that ratio. This one just quietly repeats it. Probability farming, not prophecy. Prediction market analytics people, screenshot this profile.
Realism check: a 1,166-market sample with a -1.27% ROI on deposits is not a flex, it's a warning. High win rate means nothing when your losers are structural. Run this through a Polymarket wallet checker and the story changes fast.
Track every position, transfer and PnL swing on this wallet with Predicts.guru — and check the rest of the top Polymarket traders before you copy anything.
whaleRisk: low