weiz28946
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weiz28946 is a Polymarket wallet profile with $0 PnL, $21 total volume, a 86.1% win rate, and activity across 79 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
weiz28946 (0xa9cfa66515ba54f181584609ba573a2d90af6b81) is the strangest Polymarket trader you'll ever check — an 86.1% win rate and still down 17.85% on deposits.
That's not a typo. That's the whole story. This Polymarket wallet analytics case study should be taught in every "win rate is a vanity metric" thread. weiz28946 sits at rank #775,364 on the Polymarket leaderboard, runs 132 closed trades across 79 markets, and posts $0.3 in PnL against $21.2 in volume. Win rate: 86%. ROI: negative. Read that again.
The strategy is textbook conservative favorite-buying. Average entry price sits at 0.91 — this trader buys heavy favorites at 91 cents, collects pennies when they hit, and holds the bag when one breaks. Classic pick-up-pennies-in-front-of-a-steamroller setup. The proof is brutal: best trade was a Manchester City win on Manchester City vs Arsenal for +$27.65, while a single Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham draw cost -$21.79. One loss ate 79% of the biggest win.
Opened the wallet expecting an insider. Saw a grinder. No bots, no latency arb, no panic sniping — just a human clicking favorites at 0.9+ about once a day, 132 positions at a time. Bio empty, wallet honest.
What separates weiz28946 from 99% of degens isn't edge — it's the opposite. Buy/sell ratio sits near 2.6, meaning heavy accumulation and rare exits. Retail chases headlines and fat payouts; this trader farmed noise and got farmed by variance. That's the lesson: at 0.91 entry you need an unreal win rate to survive, and 86% wasn't enough.
Right now there are zero open positions — fully flat, 132 closed, nothing live. Total deposits ran $303 with $249 withdrawn, so the damage is real but bounded. Not everyone survives the drawdown, and this one took it quietly. Risk level reads low, but the math says otherwise.
Track weiz28946 and every other Polymarket whale on Predicts.guru — and if you want a real masterclass in prediction market analytics, go study the wallets that actually print.
conservativeRisk: low